Dateline: September 13, 2025

Speculation about a second American civil war has lingered in the air for years, fed by MAGA extremism, growing inequality, and a paralyzed political system. But what would such a conflict actually look like if it erupted today? Based on current realities, it would not resemble the blue and gray battle lines of 1861. It would be a decentralized, chaotic, and brutal conflict, fought between MAGA loyalists and everyone else.

The First Shots

The initial outbreaks would likely occur in scattered, localized violence: statehouses stormed, election boards attacked, libraries and schools burned, and targeted killings carried out under the guise of defending “freedom.” Militias, well-armed and deeply indoctrinated, would strike soft civilian targets first.

Non-MAGA forces, however, are not a unified bloc. Instead, they would resemble a patchwork resistance: organized labor networks, Black Lives Matter chapters, immigrant defense groups, veterans’ associations, anarchist collectives, and mainstream liberals. Some would resist immediately; others would hunker down, hoping to avoid involvement. But neutrality in such a war is an illusion. History shows that standing aside only feeds fascism, as the Weimar Republic tragically demonstrated (Evans, 2005).

The Civilian Dilemma

The largest group in this imagined war are the noncombatants who refuse to take a stand. They would pay dearly. In every civil war, from Spain in the 1930s to Syria in the 2010s, “neutral” populations are displaced, starved, or massacred (Preston, 2012; Phillips, 2016). Those who believe they can ride out the storm by keeping their heads down would find themselves caught between MAGA terror and anti-fascist reprisals.

Economic Collapse and Global Intrusion

Economically, the U.S. would collapse within weeks. Supply chains would choke, banks would close, and the grid would falter. MAGA thrives on chaos, but chaos does not feed families. Food insecurity would skyrocket, and foreign powers would take advantage.

Russia would funnel money and weapons to MAGA cells, eager to destabilize NATO’s core state. China would offer quiet support to anti-MAGA enclaves, seeking to expand its influence. Europe would establish humanitarian corridors for refugees. America would become not just a civil war zone but a battlefield for global competition (Snyder, 2017).

The MAGA Weakness

MAGA’s militias may appear powerful in the short term, but discipline wins wars. These groups thrive on rage, not on logistics or coordination. Non-MAGA forces that learn to strike strategically—cutting off fuel, sabotaging supply lines, and engaging in digital warfare—would gain the upper hand.

A Shattered Endgame

Civil wars end either by decisive victory or exhaustion. MAGA lacks stamina. Non-MAGA has the numbers, the resources, and the global allies. The likely outcome is a fractured United States, with MAGA pockets crushed or disarmed and reconstruction forced through international oversight.

But the costs would be devastating: millions displaced, cities destroyed, and trust in democracy shattered. The lesson is grim but clear: neutrality is death. Everyone must choose a side. Freedom does not survive by accident—it survives because people fight for it.

This is the hard truth that Americans must face. The future is not preordained, but if conflict comes, the lines are already drawn. The real question is whether Americans will resist before the shooting starts.

Read more in my field manual:
How to Fight Fascism from 8,000 Miles Away

For ongoing antifascist resources:
https://endfascism.xyz

References

Evans, R. J. (2005). The Third Reich in Power, 1933-1939. Penguin.

Phillips, C. (2016). The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East. Yale University Press.

Preston, P. (2012). The Spanish Holocaust: Inquisition and Extermination in Twentieth-Century Spain. W. W. Norton.

Snyder, T. (2017). On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century. Tim Duggan Books.