Introduction

The United States is not collapsing, but it is fragile. Multiple stressors—food insecurity, cost-of-living shocks, eroding trust in institutions, rising labor militancy, and heavy-handed immigration enforcement—are converging. While a coordinated national general strike remains unlikely in the near term, the probability of rolling, localized unrest is growing. In this analysis, we review the threat factors to U.S. stability and assess the conditions under which wildcat walkouts, sector strikes, and protest waves could accelerate into sustained civil disruption.

Food Insecurity & Economic Stress

The clearest barometer of distress is food access. In 2023, 13.5% of U.S. households—over 18 million—experienced food insecurity, and 5.1% faced very low food security (USDA Economic Research Service, 2024). Those rates rose versus 2022 as pandemic supports expired while grocery, rent, and healthcare costs climbed. Food insecurity is no longer confined to the poor; many lower- and middle-income households are one unexpected bill away from crisis. In political science and risk modeling, persistent food stress correlates strongly with protest activity: when dinner becomes uncertain, patience for “politics as usual” evaporates (Verisk Maplecroft, 2024).

(USDA summary and figures for 2023; see ERS report and key stats.) 0

Inequality & the Trust Recession

Material strain intersects with a deep trust recession. Pew’s 2024 benchmark shows only about 22% of Americans trust the federal government to do the right thing “most of the time,” with the majority saying “only some of the time” or “never” (Pew Research Center, 2024). When citizens believe institutions are unresponsive—or captured—ordinary conflicts escalate faster. Polarization intensifies this dynamic by framing opponents as existential threats, turning legislative gridlock into a rolling legitimacy crisis. That legitimacy gap is a known accelerator for unrest, especially when combined with visible economic hardship.

(Trust levels in federal government, 1958–2024 series.) 1

Wildcat Walkouts & Sector Strikes: Why They’re More Likely Than a General Strike

A nationwide, cross-sector general strike requires extraordinary coordination. Today’s labor reality looks different: wildcat walkouts (unauthorized job actions) and rolling sector strikes. Logistics hubs, warehouses, healthcare systems, schools, hotels, and app-based gig platforms have all seen waves of spontaneous or fast-organized stoppages in recent years. Rising rents and groceries, understaffing, and burnout fuel impatience with slow negotiations; social media shortens the fuse. These actions can be highly disruptive—choking supply chains or services—even without a national call to strike. Expect more of this if real wages continue to lag living costs and if safety-net programs are pared back.

(Civil-unrest risk modeling highlights rising protest propensity.) 2

ICE Overreach as a Flashpoint

Another volatile driver is the perception—and reality—of immigration enforcement overreach. ICE’s hybrid authority, frequently exercised with limited transparency, touches neighborhoods, courthouses, and workplaces. Documented cases show that even U.S. citizens have been wrongfully detained or imperiled by detainers and misidentification (ACLU, 2017; ACLU of Florida, 2025). Community defense networks, sanctuary policies, and rapid-response alerts exist precisely because of this track record. A single high-profile, botched raid harming a child, elder, or obvious citizen could catalyze large, sustained protests—similar to 2020’s nationwide mobilizations—especially if video evidence goes viral.

(Background on detainers and wrongful-detention litigation; recent court orders curbing abusive conditions.) 3

Policy Signals & Data Gaps

Risk monitoring also depends on credible public data. Anti-hunger advocates and analysts warn that terminating the USDA’s longstanding Household Food Security report would obscure policy impacts just as nutrition benefits tighten (Associated Press, 2025; Reuters, 2025). If official measures go dark while hardship rises, expect civil-society groups, food banks, and local governments to fill the gap—and to frame cuts as deliberate suppression. Information blackouts rarely calm public sentiment; they breed suspicion, intensify narrative battles, and can push grievances into the streets.

(Reports on ending the hunger survey and concurrent SNAP cuts.) 4

How Close Are We to Widespread Unrest?

Short answer: closer to waves of localized unrest and sector actions than to a coordinated general strike. The ingredients are in the bowl—economic precarity (food insecurity, rent, healthcare), political delegitimization, aggressive enforcement incidents, and a workforce more willing to walk. The missing piece is a galvanizing trigger event that fuses grievances across class and region. That could be: a severe macro shock (jobs or inflation spike), a highly publicized ICE abuse, a contested legal/political decision, or visible state violence. If two or more of these coincide while the safety net frays, expect multi-city protests, solidarity walkouts, and targeted consumer boycotts.

Conversely, swift policy relief (bolstering SNAP/WIC; rent and medical-debt interventions), accountability for abusive enforcement, and credible institutional reform can blunt escalation. Absent that, the baseline over the next year is elevated: scattered protests are likely; rolling sector strikes are plausible; a true general strike remains a stretch—but not unthinkable if conditions deteriorate sharply.

Bottom Line

America’s stability now hinges less on abstract ideology and more on daily solvency and dignity. If people can reliably feed their families, keep a roof overhead, access care, and believe authorities are accountable, the temperature drops. If not, localized fires will keep flaring—and some will spread.

For resources on resisting authoritarian overreach, visit EndFascism.xyz.

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References (APA)

  1. Pew Research Center. (2024, June 24). Public trust in government: 1958–2024. https://www.pewresearch.org/ 5
  2. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2024, Sept. 4). Household Food Security in the United States in 2023. https://www.ers.usda.gov/ 6
  3. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2025, Jan. 8). Food Security in the U.S.: Key statistics & graphics. https://www.ers.usda.gov/ 7
  4. Verisk Maplecroft. (2024). Political risk outlook / Civil Unrest Index. https://www.maplecroft.com/ 8
  5. American Civil Liberties Union. (2017). Morales v. Chadbourne (erroneous detainer of a U.S. citizen). https://www.aclu.org/ 9
  6. ACLU of Florida. (2025, May 30). Federal court rules in favor of U.S. citizen illegally detained for deportation. https://www.aclu.org/ 10
  7. New York Civil Liberties Union. (2025). Order prohibiting ICE from detaining immigrants in abusive conditions at 26 Federal Plaza. https://www.aclu.org/ 11
  8. Associated Press. (2025, Sept.). After cuts to food stamps, administration ends annual hunger report. https://apnews.com/ 12
  9. Reuters. (2025, Sept. 22). Impact harder to track without USDA hunger survey. https://www.reuters.com/ 13